409

26/01/2010

409

Ethiopian Airlines Flight 409 crashed into the Mediterranean Sea yesterday, killing 90.  The official explanation is that heavy weather was cause, and Lebanese officials “…have ruled out foul play so far”.  This despite of the fact that eyewitnesses saw the airplane go down in flames after a flash of light.  In the context of the current threat environment for passenger aircraft, we should be skeptical of Lebanese officials’ claims.

On 25 December, a Nigerian national unsuccessfully attempted to blow up Northwest Airlines Flight 253, after smuggling a device aboard in his underwear.  Most immediately suspected Al Qaeda, recalling a previous failed airline bombing by Richard Reid, the “shoe bomber.”  American authorities rapidly confirmed these suspicions.  Authorities determined that the bomber’s training took place in Yemen, home to Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).

On 8 January, CBS News reported that the Flight 253 bomber, Umar Abdulmutallab, told US authorities that 20 more suicide bombers were being prepared in Yemen.  In that same piece, CBS says:

In addition, a team of FBI agents is now on the ground in the West African nation of Ghana, having arrived last Saturday, attempting to piece together Abdulmutallab’s whereabouts and activities in the two weeks prior to the attempted attack on Flight 253.

According to a government official, Abdulmutallab first arrived in the Ghana capitol of Addis Ababa on December 9 after spending five months in Yemen. sic

Addis Ababa is capital of Ethiopia, not Ghana.  I suspect that the copy was supposed to read “first arrived in Ghana from Addis Ababa,” as CBS linked to another of their  reports:

Abdulmutallab arrived in Lagos, Nigeria December 24 from a flight originating in Ghana. He then flew to Amsterdam where he boarded a plane bound for Detroit on Christmas.

Details are scarce because “this is a security issue,” James Agyenim-Boateng, the country’s Deputy Information Minister, told CBS News. He said the FBI had been in the country since Saturday and that no arrests have been made as of yet.

Agyenim-Boateng said Abdulmutallab, upon arriving in Ghana Dec. 9 from Ethiopia, had listed one hotel where he was staying on his immigration form, but actually stayed in a different hotel.

Flight 409’s destination was Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.  Abdulmutallab was there, in between his 5 months in a Yemeni training camp,  and his two week Ghana stay, where he made final preparations for his suicide bombing.  What purpose id Abdulmatallab’s stay in Addis Ababa serve?  Was it simply a convenient transportation hub, or was it something more?

After Abdulmutallab’s failed attempt, passengers everwhere raised awareness levels, while authorities raised alert levels.  A string of air-travel items hit the news in the weeks that followed:

• On 27 December, another Nigerian national on flight 253 spent an unusual amount of time in the bathroom.  Authorites met the plane as it arrived in Detroit.  It was found that he was, in fact, sick.
• On 4 January, the US government announced more checks on passengers from 14 nations.
• On 6 January, an American man behaving strangely caused Hawaiian Flight 39 to turn around well into the flight. The flight received fighter escort.
• On 8 January, a drunk Pakistani national on AirTran 39 became belligerent with flight crew, and locked himself in the bathroom.  He may also have removed his shoes.  The flight received fighter escort.
• On 8 January, a US national of Palestinian origin was removed from a Northwest flight from Miami to Detroit after he shouted that, “I want to kill all the Jews.” The man’s son said he had a history of mental illness.
• On 12 January, four (!) Arabic-speaking Air Marshalls removed four Saudi men from Northwest 243 (Amsterdam-Detroit) after the Air Marshalls overheard troubling talk between the Saudis.
• On 15 January, a 28-year-old man was questioned after reported suspicious activity on United Express 6036.   The man had been seen handling a small package, and, after he’d visited the bathroom, a flight attendant noticed that a wall panel had been dialoged.  A fellow passanger remarked that the man was Arab. Sniffer dogs found no explosives.  The Associated Press published a report of a bomb threat, but later retracted it.

Some of these events were likely innocuous events exaggerated by public fears after the failed Christmas bombing.  For instance on 21 January, a praying Jewish teenager on a US Airways flight prompted authorities to meet the aircraft after it was diverted to Philadelphia.  However, in light of the ongoing conflict between al Qaeda and the United States, one must ask if the above incidents were more than instances of drunk, crazy, or unwell passengers.

Altogether more serious are two foreign reports from last week.  On 20 January, Munich airport was closed for several hours after a man’s laptop computer tested positive for explosives.  The man fled the area.  On 23 January, a Turkish flight to Germany diverted to Greece after the pilot received a bomb threat on his mobile phone.

In the five days prior to the Ethiopian Flight 409 crash, the United States, the UK, and India made significant announcements regarding aviation security.   On 20 January, Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced that  direct flights to the UK from Yemen were barred.  India announced three days later that it was increasing security measures after receiving a hijack warning, US law enforcement was informed that two female suicide bombers of Western appearance may be loose.  Britain raised its terror alert to “severe” on 23 January, signaling that the security services there regard an attack on the UK to be “highly likely.”

Osama bin Laden released a tape to al Jazeera on 24 Jan, in which he claimed responsibility for the failed Christmas bombing. In that tape he used specific phrasing that indicated an upcoming attack, according to SITE.  Less than 24 hours later, the passengers of Flight 409 met their end.

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